BY THE NUMBERS: USCIS FURLOUGHS WILL RESULT IN MASSIVE CASE PROCESSING DELAYS AND BACKLOGS
by Scott Girard
In about one week, USCIS plans to furlough roughly 13,400 of its 20,000 employees due to “budget shortfalls.” This is more than two-thirds, or 67%, of its workforce. The furloughs appear to be agency-wide, meaning no office or service center will be spared. The effects of the furloughs would grind USCIS case processing to a very slow crawl. The agency’s processing times have already slowed down due to COVID-19-related closures and, frankly, mismanagement of resources (i.e., rejecting applications for not putting “N/A” or “None” on every line.) However, with more than two-thirds of its employees not working, processing times will likely double or even triple. Let’s take a look at some rough numbers to show the effect of the furloughs.
If roughly one-third of USCIS employees are working, case processing times would presumably triple. Here’s how that affects specific applications:
| Type | Current Min | Current Max | After Furlough Min | After Furlough Max | Year Range |
| Citizenship Application – Kansas City | 6.5 | 9.5 | 19.5 | 28.5 | 1.6-2.4 |
| Citizenship Application – Chicago | 13 | 19 | 39 | 57 | 3.3-4.8 |
| Marriage Petition | 6.5 | 9.5 | 19.5 | 28.5 | 1.6-2.4 |
| H-1B Petition | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0.5-1 |
| Adjustment of Status Application | 7 | 13 | 21 | 39 | 1.8-3.3 |
| Work Card Application | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 1-1.5 |
| Travel Document Application | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 0.8-1.3 |
*These numbers are based on rough estimates and do not take into account the positions or locations of the USCIS employees who will be furloughed or remain working. All processing times were taken from the USCIS website, uscis.gov, and reflect the processing times for the Nebraska Service Center as of 08/20/2020, unless stated otherwise.
Right now, citizenship cases in Kansas City take at least 6 months to adjudicate. After the furloughs, it could take at least a year and a half. It’s worse in other places like Chicago. Currently, citizenship cases take more than a year at least to adjudicate. After the furloughs, it could take more than three years at a minimum and even up to five years! The same goes for marriage petitions and applications for adjustment of status, which could take a year and a half at a minimum and possibly more than three years to adjudicate. Even simple applications or petitions that take little time to adjudicate will get delayed for months. For example, H-1B petitions are currently taking 2-4 months to adjudicate. After the furloughs, they could take more than six months. Applications for work permits and travel documents could take more than six months or even more than a year to adjudicate after the furloughs.
Even if the remaining employees at USCIS work 60 hours a week (which is unlikely given federal overtime payment requirements and the “budget shortfall”) or somehow increase their output 50%, processing times will likely double, as shown in the chart below.
| Type | Current Min | Current Max | After Furlough Min | After Furlough Max | Year Range |
| Citizenship Application – Kansas City | 6.5 | 9.5 | 13 | 19 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Citizenship Application – Chicago | 13 | 19 | 26 | 38 | 2.2-3.2 |
| Marriage Petition | 6.5 | 9.5 | 13 | 19 | 1.1-1.6 |
| H-1B Petition | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.3-0.7 |
| Adjustment of Status Application | 7 | 13 | 14 | 26 | 1.2-2.2 |
| Work Card Application | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 0.7-1 |
| Travel Document Application | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 0.5-0.8 |
Without funding from Congress, USCIS will operate at a dangerously slow rate. Wait times will skyrocket, with applicants waiting months longer on simple applications for work permits and travel documents and years longer on petitions and citizenship and green card applications. On October 2, 2020, fees for most applications will increase significantly. However, it is hard to say how this will affect USCIS’s budget, considering fewer people are applying for benefits right now. Even when funding arrives at USCIS, the effects of the furlough could last years, causing further delays. Applicants and attorneys should be ready to wait.
